The Democrats need 15 seats to take control of the House and six to take the Senate. Up until recently, most polls indicated the public favored Democrats over Republicans by double-digit margins, but that margin has decreased significantly in recent days.
Despite a number of tight races, public-opinion polls reflect an overarching theme driving this year's mid-term election: Voters want change, and they plan to hold whoever they elect into office accountable for getting it done.
Here's what you need to know:
·Affirmative Action
Michigan will vote on the so-called Michigan Civil Rights Initiative (MCRI), a proposal to ban affirmative action in public education, employment and contracting. In 2003, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld affirmative-action policies at the University of Michigan Law School. This critical decision would be invalidated if the MCRI passed and would open the door for ongoing legal challenges to affirmative action both in the state and nationwide. Long-time affirmative-action foe Ward Connerly, who is black, recently came under fire for endorsing the KKK. Watch the video below.
Public opinion has vacillated throughout the duration of the campaign, a trend that pollsters say mirrors patterns in California prior to the passage of Proposition 209 in 1996, which ended affirmative action in the state. Affirmative-action foes now lead in the polls 49 percent to 41 percent with 10 percent undecided. Polls show majority support for Democratic incumbent Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Democratic Senatorial candidate Debbie Stabenow, both of whom support affirmative action. Another key supporter is Rep. John Conyers, D-Mich., who is next in line to chair the Judiciary Committee should the Democrats take the House.
·Same-Sex Marriage
In 2004, 11 states passed a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage. Today, eight more states will vote on the proposal. Republicans are struggling to retain their religious-conservative voting bloc in the aftermath of the Mark Foley scandal. Same-sex marriage is on the ballot in Tennessee and Virginia, where senatorial campaigns have been dominated by character attacks.
National public-opinion polls reflect the public's ambivalence about same-sex marriage. A JulyPewResearchCenter survey showed the public favors civil unions (54 percent) but opposes same-sex marriage (56 percent).
·Immigration
Republicans have alienated many voters by taking such a hard-line stance on immigration, especially in the minority-majority state of California. Fifty-one percent of Latinos in the state say immigration is the most important issue facing their community, followed by education (28 percent).
The general public does not believe constructing a 700-mile fence is a viable solution to undocumented immigration, but there is some support for Bush's guest-worker program, which would allow undocumented immigrants to continue working and obtain citizenship with a goal of integrating them into the mainstream economy--a key issue for industries suffering from shrinking labor pools and disintegrating job markets.
But this is not just an economic issue. Many candidates are campaigning for immigration as a "moral issue," arguing the administration's policies reflect an attempt to find scapegoats for national economic and political woes.
·Stem-Cell Research
Stem-cell research is on the ballot in Missouri, an issue on which senatorial candidates Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Jim Talent disagree. The Missouri Stem Cell Initiative would amend the state constitution to allow for any research permissible under national law. McCaskill is backed by Michael J. Fox, who has Parkinson's disease. McCaskill leads Talent by a bare margin--46 percent to 45 percent. Conservative radio talk-show host Rush Limbaugh was in hot water after he claimed Fox was faking a dramatic video showing his symptoms and suggested he had deliberately not taken his medicine. Watch the video below.
·Key Races to Watch
Electoral analysts say foreign policy will be the tipping point in this year's mid-term elections, particularly in tight races. This could give Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill.--an Army helicopter pilot who was lost both her legs and shattered one arm in the Iraq war--a boost over her Republican opponent Peter Roskam in the 6th Congressional District of Illinois. Read the October issue of DiversityInc for our exclusive interview with Duckworth and to learn about her agenda for change.
The economy is a key issue in Maryland's Senate race. Republican candidate Michael Steele, who is black, embodies the administration's effort to engage the black community. Such attempts have failed on a large scale, as the administration's slow response to Hurricane Katrina, poor attention to healthcare disparities and recent challenges to the Voting Rights Act reauthorization trump Republican efforts to woo black voters. Steele has tried to distance himself from Bush.
Many will remember the Republican National Committee's scathing advertisement against Democratic candidate Harold Ford, who is black, as one of the most denigrating of the mid-term campaigns.
If elected, Ford would be the first Democratic candidate Tennessee elected to the Senate since the 1990s. He is a moderate who opposes issues such as same-sex marriage, which may appease some conservatives. Watch the video below.
