Latinos' Warning to Democrats: Ignore Us Now, Pay Later

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Despite trailing better-known Republican contenders such as Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain since announcing his presidential bid, Mike uckabeeHuckabee emerged from the shadows to claim victory in Iowa shortly after releasing a proposal in December that called for tougher immigration enforcement and tighter border security.

In his proposal, reports The New York Times, Huckabee pledged to complete a border fence between the U.S. and Mexico by 2010 and ruled out "a pathway to citizenship" for undocumented immigrants unless they first returned to their native country, backpedaling on a pledge he made earlier at a GOP debate that "We're a better country than to punish children for what their parents did."

That pledge went hand in hand with earlier statements Huckabee made welcoming the influx of Latinos into Arkansas during his tenure as governor and praising "racial progress" made throughout the state. Casting aside those earlier pronouncements, Huckabee struck a winning chord in Iowa, railing against undocumented immigrants, a fact that concerns many Latino advocacy groups across the country.

"People should be really concerned that Mike Huckabee leveraged the endorsement of a hate group [The Minutemen] as part of his campaign," says Cecilia Munoz, senior vice president for policy at the National Council of La Raza.

Munoz isn't convinced Huckabee's anti-immigrant rhetoric was the lone factor in his win because "most of his Republican competitors have taken similar positions. They're all trying to show each one could be tougher than the next." She says what is of greater concern is the degree that extremism is finding its way into this debate. "That should not only concern Latinos. It should concern everyone," she says.

So will the strategy that worked so well for Huckabee in Iowa, which is 95 percent white, succeed as the campaign trail makes its way across increasingly diverse states where Latinos may play a pivotal role? According to a recent poll by the Pew Research Center, Latinos could well be the critical voting bloc as the election campaign plays out.

According to the Pew poll, 57 percent of registered Latino voters identify themselves as Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party, while just 23 percent align with the Republican Party. While that may be a comforting thought for the eventual Democratic nominee, it will mean little unless the Democratic Party makes a compelling case to get Latinos out to the voting booth.

"That's a mistake the Democratic Party has made in the last two presidential elections … assuming they have the Latino vote wrapped up," says Alma Morales Riojas, president and CEO of MANA, A National Latina Organization. "It's going to come down to who best serves the interest and the growth and well-being of the Latino community." 

The Democratic nominees made early appeals to connect to the Latino community by attending the first Spanish-language presidential debate sponsored by Univision in September.

The significance of the Latino vote is due in large part to geography, according to the Pew poll. "They're strategically located on the 2008 Electoral College map. [Latinos] constitute a sizeable share of the electorate in four of the six states that President Bush carried by margins of five percentage points or fewer in 2004--New Mexico (where Latinos make up 37 percent of the state's eligible electorate); Florida (14 percent); Nevada (12 percent) and Colorado (12 percent). All four are expected to be closely contested once again in 2008."

Latinos have historically voted Democratic, but President Bush earned 40 percent of the Latino vote during his reelection campaign in 2004. Indeed, the Latino vote is credited with ushering in Bush's second term.

"I don't see any of the candidates that have truly positioned themselves for Latino causes," says Riojas. "I do see Latinos going beyond party lines and asking what can this candidate, be it Democrat or Republican, do for me. You cannot just assume the Democrats are going to get the votes. The immigration issue is going to be the major issue for Latinos. It goes into how this country feels and treats this growing community."

Adds Munoz, "Democrats are facing a choice of whether they can sound 'Republican- light' and hope we'll vote for them anyway or really taking stands on positions that will energize this community … the fastest-growing section of the electorate. They have to stand up for policies that work and stand up against demigods."

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